The Siege of the Ukraine

As tensions build around Russian military activities near the Ukrainian border, American news coverage has been focused on whether or not there will be an actual invasion of the Ukraine. This coverage misses the point. Let’s clarify.

What Does Russia Want?

The Russian Government wants the total reincorporation of the Ukraine into Russia, as it was prior to 1991. The Russian people may not be so intent on having this, but President Vladimir Putin has done a lot over the past two years to silence dissent. He’s demonstrated rather effectively his indifference to the priorities of the people he governs. When I speak of Russia as a subject with an agenda for the rest of this article, understand that I am speaking of Putin and his court circle.

Putin has openly acknowledged his agenda. In an article from July 2021, He reviewed the shared history of Russians and Ukrainians since the Middle Ages, concluding:

I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.

— “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukranians“

However, Putin’s historical survey of their shared history has some omissions, the most glaring of which is the Soviet Terror Famine of 1930-33, in which at least 5 million rural Ukrainians died [Source: Robert Conquest, The Harvest of Sorrow, 1986, p. 306]. The Ukrainian people are well aware of this history.

Source: Washington Post, “Four maps that explain the Russia-Ukraine conflict“

During Stalin’s reign, Russians were settled in the eastern Ukraine, in and around the cities of Donetsk (then called Stalino) and Luhansk (then called Voroshilovgrad). This is part of what has become the standard playbook of 20th century ethnic takeover of land. Given the premise that people should have self-determination, the government manipulates this by:

1. Planting people of your ethnicity in a contested area;
2. Killing enough people who are not of your ethnicity to terrorize the rest of them into pulling up sticks and running away.

Is Putin Rational?

Putin was schooled by the KGB, and rose to the rank of Lieutenant-Colonel. The KGB changed its name several times since its founding as the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission (Cheka) in 1917, but maintained consistency of outlook and methods. This was the secret police organization of the Soviet Union. The people who staffed it have a tradition of being highly rational. Cynical and amoral, yes, but rational nonetheless.

The modern Chekist sees himself as the shield of the nation. Without the security services, Russia would go to hell in a bucket. People would start imbibing pluralist, liberal ideas from the West. Russia is bombarded with these ideas from Western media and the Internet. Left to their own devices, ordinary people would absorb these ideas and start living however they pleased. The Chekist must act vigorously to protect the nation from this rot.

The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) is the direct descendent of the Cheka-NKVD-MVD-KGB after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It inherited its culture whole, along with many of the practitioners.

For the Chekist, the only reality is power. The only thing better than power is more power. The Chekist only respects strength. Making imaginary snowballs with your hands and going on about how nobody wants war is not respectable behavior.

Why Should Anyone in the US Care about the Ukraine?

If Russia were to absorb the Ukraine, it’s not as if Putin would declare himself sated and go on about selling natural gas. We will be in conflict with Russia. This conflict can be deferred, but not avoided. We can have this conflict now, or we can have it after Russia digests the Ukraine and is that much the economically stronger for it.

What Is Putin Trying to Do Now?

Putin has given himself many options. He has forces so close to the Ukraine that he can order a sudden hard turn, invading from several directions in a matter of hours. He can also maintain this threat for weeks and make the Ukraine suffer economically.

Putin has the Ukraine under siege right now. Investors hate uncertainty, so Putin is making anyone considering investing in a Ukrainian enterprise nervous. Further, Ukrainians who are serving in the national defense forces are not available to work in wealth-producing activities. This weakens the Ukraine in the long run, because you can only have the army you can pay for.

The NATO countries should be taking action to penalize Russia for its aggression now.

Will Economic Sanctions Cause Putin to Back Down?

Probably not. As Putin sees it, annexing the Ukraine is a necessary condition for Russian greatness. He’s willing to endure some pain to achieve that, particularly as he himself will not experience the pain.

Putin turns 70 this year. He has been clear in articulating his geopolitical outlook. He would welcome the chance to leave the annexation of the Ukraine into Russia as his legacy.